Introduction
This MTG probability calculator tells you how likely you are to draw the cards you need. Type in your deck size, how many cards you draw, and how many copies you run. You get the exact odds right away.
The tool has three modes:
- Single Card — Find the chance of drawing one card, like a land or a bomb. See the odds for your opening hand and for each turn after.
- Combo Draw — Need two or more pieces at once? Set up card groups and see the chance of getting all of them together.
- Niv-Mizzet Reborn — Enter your guild card counts and see how many cards Niv is likely to draw you.
Every answer comes with a step-by-step breakdown, a chart, and a full table, so you can see the math behind the number. Use it to test a deck list, pick the right number of copies, or settle a debate about your mulligan. If you play other card games, the same engine powers our general card draw calculator and our Yugioh probability calculator.
How to use our MTG Probability Calculator
Pick a tab, type in your deck size and card counts, and the calculator shows your draw odds as a percent, plus step-by-step math, charts, and tables.
Cards in Deck (Single Card tab): Type how many cards are left in your library. Use 60 for Standard or Modern, 40 for Limited, and 99 for Commander. Quick buttons fill this in for you.
Cards Drawn: Type how many cards you will see. Use 7 for an opening hand, or add one card for each turn you draw.
Copies in Deck: Type how many copies of the card you want are in your deck. Most decks run 1 to 4.
Copies Needed: Type how many copies you want in hand. Use 1 for most cards, or 2 if you need a pair.
On the Draw switch: Turn it on if you draw first. Leave it off if you are on the play, since that player skips the turn-one draw. This changes the turn-by-turn table.
Cards in Deck (Combo Draw tab): Type your library size for the multi-card check, such as 60 or 99.
Cards Drawn (Combo Draw tab): Type the total cards you will see in that draw.
Turn number: Type a turn instead, and the tool fills in Cards Drawn for you using the play or draw switch.
Card group name: Name each group you need, like Lands, Removal, or Combo Piece.
Copies in deck (group): Type how many cards are in that group, like 24 lands.
Minimum needed (group): Type how many of that group you must draw. Add up to six groups with the Add Requirement button.
Cards in Deck (Niv-Mizzet Reborn tab): Type your library size when Niv-Mizzet Reborn resolves.
Guild counts: For each of the ten guilds, type how many cards you run in exactly those two colors. One-color, three-color, and colorless cards do not count, so leave them out.
MTG Draw Probability: What It Means
Every game of Magic: The Gathering starts with a shuffled deck. You cannot pick your cards, but you can know your odds. Draw probability tells you how likely you are to see a card in your opening hand or by a certain turn. Deck builders use these odds to choose how many lands, removal spells, and combo pieces to run.
The Math Behind It
Card draws use the hypergeometric distribution. That is a fancy name for a simple idea: you pull cards out of a deck and never put them back. Each card you draw changes the odds for the next one. This is different from rolling dice, where the odds stay the same every roll — see our dice probability calculator for that kind of independent event, or the general probability calculator for single-event math.
Four numbers drive the math:
- Cards in deck – your library size, like 60 for Standard or 99 for Commander.
- Cards drawn – how many cards you have seen so far.
- Copies in deck – how many of that card (or that type of card) you play.
- Copies needed – how many you want in hand.
Under the hood, each answer is a ratio of card combinations. If you want to see how those counts are built, try the combination calculator, the permutation calculator, or the factorial calculator.
Numbers Worth Remembering
In a 60-card deck, 4 copies of a card show up in your 7-card opening hand about 40% of the time. One copy shows up only about 11% of the time. In a 99-card Commander deck, a single copy appears in your opener about 7% of the time. That is why singleton decks lean on tutors and card draw.
On the Play vs. On the Draw
The player who goes first skips their first draw step. So on the play you have seen 7 cards on turn 1, and on the draw you have seen 8. That one extra card raises your odds a little every turn, which matters for finding lands and answers.
Combo and Multi-Card Odds
Some plans need two or more things at once, like a land drop plus a two-drop, or both halves of a combo. Those odds are not just one chance times another. The cards share the same hand, so they compete for slots. Combined odds are always lower than each piece on its own. If you want to price out whether a risky line is worth it, the expected value calculator helps you compare payoffs.
Niv-Mizzet Reborn
Niv-Mizzet Reborn reveals the top 10 cards of your library and lets you draw one card of each two-color pair — up to 10 guilds: Azorius, Dimir, Rakdos, Gruul, Selesnya, Orzhov, Izzet, Golgari, Boros, and Simic. Mono-color cards, three-color cards, and lands do nothing here. The more evenly you spread your gold cards across all ten guilds, the more cards you draw on average.
How to Use These Odds
Use them to test real choices. Should you run 3 or 4 copies? Is 24 lands enough? How fast do you find your win condition? Check the numbers, then adjust your deck list. Good odds will not win every game, but over many games they win more.
More Gaming Odds Tools
Card odds show up all over tabletop and video games. Try our poker odds calculator or Texas Hold'em odds calculator for hold'em hands, the blackjack calculator for hit-or-stand math, the Balatro calculator for joker scoring, and the DnD encounter calculator for tabletop night. Chasing a rare pull instead? The Genshin pity calculator and shiny odds calculator run the same kind of math.