CS2 Trade Up Calculator - EV, Profit Margin, Float Output

Trade Up Calculator

Updated Aug 25, 2026 By Jehan Wadia

Introduction

A CS2 trade up contract lets you swap 10 skins of the same rarity for one skin of the next rarity up. The catch is you never know which skin you will get. This CS2 Trade Up Calculator shows you the odds and the money before you risk your skins.

Pick 10 skins from the skin library, and the tool does the math for you. It works out your total input cost, the expected value (EV) of the output, your expected profit, and your profit margin. It also lists every possible outcome with its exact chance, so you can see what you are really trading for.

The calculator also predicts your output float. Float decides the wear of your new skin, like Factory New or Field-Tested. Lower input floats give you a better output float, and the Optimize Floats button sets each input to its lowest value for you.

You can switch price sources between Steam, CSFloat, Skinport, BUFF163, or the lowest price found. Every number updates right away. Want ideas instead? Use Generate Random Profitable Contract to find a trade up with a positive margin, or pick a target skin and let the tool find the cheapest inputs that can reach it.

Each contract also gets a letter grade from A+ to F. The grade mixes profit margin, break-even chance, float, and price risk into one score. A full step-by-step solution shows the formulas behind every result, so you learn how trade ups work instead of just guessing.

How to use our CS2 Trade Up Calculator

Pick 10 skins of the same rarity, set their float and price, and the calculator shows your total cost, expected value, profit, output float, wear odds, and every possible outcome with its chance.

Marketplace price source: Choose where prices come from, like Steam, CSFloat, Skinport, or BUFF163. All costs and profit numbers use this source.

Sort possible outcomes by: List the possible output skins by chance or by price.

Search skins: Type a weapon or skin name to find items fast.

Rarity tier: Pick the grade of your input skins. Once you add one skin, the rest must match that tier.

Collection / case: Filter skins by their case or map collection. Mixing collections changes your outcome odds.

Min float cap: Enter a number from 0 to 1 to hide skins below that float range.

Max float cap: Enter a number from 0 to 1 to hide skins above that float range.

Sort order: Sort the skin list by name, price, or float cap.

StatTrak™ Only: Turn this on to use only StatTrak™ skins. Prices go up and non-StatTrak™ skins are removed. If you are chasing a StatTrak™ kill count, our KD Calculator is a handy companion.

Souvenir Only: This stays off. Souvenir skins cannot be used in CS2 trade up contracts.

My Inventory: Turn this on to show only skins marked as owned.

Show Price History: Turn this on to see the 7-day price trend next to each skin. To read those swings as a percent change, run the two prices through our percent change tool.

Add Skins: Opens the skin library so you can fill your 10 contract slots.

Fill All: Copies your last added skin into every empty slot.

Clear All: Empties all slots and resets the results.

Float (per slot): Type the exact float of your skin. It must stay inside that skin's float range.

Price (per slot): Type what you really paid, or leave the market price as is.

Restore All Prices: Puts every slot back to the live market price.

Optimize Floats: Sets all inputs to their lowest float for the best output float.

Generate Random Profitable Contract: Builds a full contract with a positive expected profit.

Find cheapest contract for a target skin: Pick the skin you want to win, then click Find Cheapest Inputs to load the lowest cost inputs for it.

Calculate: Runs the math and shows your stats, outcomes, charts, and step-by-step solution.

Reset: Clears your settings and loads the sample contract again.

What Is a CS2 Trade Up Contract?

A Trade Up Contract in Counter-Strike 2 lets you turn 10 skins into 1 new skin. All 10 skins you put in must be the same rarity tier. The skin you get back is always one tier higher. You cannot pick which skin you get. The game picks it for you at random.

The Rarity Ladder

Skins move up this ladder, one step at a time:

Consumer Grade (white) → Industrial Grade
Industrial Grade (light blue) → Mil-Spec
Mil-Spec (blue) → Restricted
Restricted (purple) → Classified
Classified (pink) → Covert
Covert (red) → nothing. Covert is the top, so it cannot be traded up.

How the Odds Work

Every skin you put in comes from a collection, like a case or a map drop set. Each input skin gives you a chance at the higher-tier skins from its own collection. The math uses "tickets." One input skin earns one ticket for each higher-tier skin in its collection. So a collection with 2 higher-tier skins gives 2 tickets per input, and a collection with 5 gives 5 tickets per input.

Add all the tickets up. Each single outcome's chance is the number of inputs from that collection divided by the total tickets. This is the same style of probability math behind any loot roll, and you can double-check a single roll with our Drop Chance Calculator. This means collections with fewer high-tier skins give you better odds per skin. That is why smart traders load up on inputs from small collections with one pricey outcome.

Float and Wear

Float is a number from 0 to 1 that shows how beat-up a skin looks. Lower is cleaner. The contract takes the plain average of your 10 input floats, then maps that average onto the float range of whatever skin you win. Because each skin has its own range, the same average can give a Factory New on one skin and a Field-Tested on another.

Wear names come from float:

Factory New: 0.00 – 0.07
Minimal Wear: 0.07 – 0.15
Field-Tested: 0.15 – 0.38
Well-Worn: 0.38 – 0.45
Battle-Scarred: 0.45 – 1.00

Using low-float inputs is a cheap way to raise the value of your output, since clean skins sell for more.

Rules to Remember

You need exactly 10 skins. No more, no less.
All 10 must share the same rarity tier.
You can mix collections. This spreads your odds across more possible skins.
StatTrak™ skins only trade up with other StatTrak™ skins, and the output is StatTrak™ too.
Souvenir skins cannot be used in trade ups at all.
Knives and gloves are "Special" items. They never come out of a normal trade up.
Trade ups cannot be undone. Once you click it, your 10 skins are gone.

Expected Value and Profit

Expected value (EV) is the average payout of a trade up if you did it many, many times. You find it by multiplying each outcome's price by its chance, then adding them all up, which is really just a weighted average of the possible payouts. If the EV is higher than what you paid for your 10 inputs, the trade up has a positive edge. If it is lower, you lose money over time, and our ROI Calculator can show what that drag looks like across a whole session.

Even a good trade up can lose. A contract with a 20% shot at a big skin will fail 4 times out of 5. Profit only shows up over many contracts, and market fees, price swings, and seller cuts eat into it. Bankroll sizing matters too, and the Kelly Criterion Calculator is a good way to think about how much of your inventory to risk on one edge. Always check prices on the same marketplace you plan to buy and sell on, since Steam, CSFloat, Skinport, and BUFF163 all price skins differently.

Formulas used

Item price from market source

P = \text{base} \times m_{\text{market}} \times \begin{cases} 2.2 & \text{StatTrak}^{\text{TM}} \\ 1.55 & \text{Souvenir} \\ 1 & \text{normal} \end{cases}

Total input cost

C_{in} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} P_i

CS2 ticket pool (total outcome tickets)

T = \sum_j n_j \, m_j

Probability of a single outcome

P_i = \frac{n_C}{T}

Expected value of the output

EV = \sum_i P_i V_i

Expected profit and profit margin

\Pi = EV - C_{in}, \qquad M = \frac{\Pi}{C_{in}} \times 100\%

Predicted output float (average input float mapped to output range)

f_{out} = f_{min} + \bar{f}\,(f_{max} - f_{min}), \qquad \bar{f} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} f_i

Contract viability score

S = 0.40\,S_{margin} + 0.30\,S_{be} + 0.10\,S_{float} + 0.20\,S_{risk}, \quad S_{risk} = \frac{100}{1 + \frac{\sqrt{\sum_i P_i (V_i - EV)^2}}{EV}}

Frequently asked questions

Why does my calculator show a loss even after I pick good skins?

Expected profit is the average result over many trade ups. If the input cost is higher than the expected value, the math shows a loss. Try cheaper inputs, or use inputs from a collection with fewer high-tier skins so your odds of a pricey win go up.

Why can I only add skins of one rarity after my first pick?

CS2 rules say all 10 inputs must share the same rarity tier. Once you add your first skin, the calculator locks the rarity tier and greys out the rest. Clear a slot or hit Clear All to switch tiers.

Why is the Souvenir Only switch turned off every time I click it?

Souvenir skins cannot be used in CS2 trade up contracts at all. The switch turns itself back off on purpose so you never build a contract that the game would reject.

What does the Optimize Floats button actually change?

It sets every input slot to the lowest float that skin can have. That drops your average input float, which gives you a cleaner output skin. Cleaner skins sell for more, so your expected value often rises too.

Why did my expected value change when I switched marketplaces?

Each market prices skins differently. Steam prices run higher because of fees, while BUFF163 runs lower. The tool re-prices every input and every outcome using the source you pick, so cost, EV, profit, and margin all shift.

Can I type in the real price I paid for a skin?

Yes. Each slot has a price box. Type your real cost and the slot is marked as a manual override. Click Restore All Prices to go back to live market prices.

Why do two outcomes from different collections have different chances?

Chance depends on how many inputs came from that collection and how many high-tier skins that collection has. More inputs from one collection means more tickets. A collection with fewer high-tier skins spreads those tickets over fewer outcomes, so each one is more likely.

What does the letter grade mean?

The grade rates the whole contract from A+ to F. It mixes four scores: profit margin (40%), break-even chance (30%), price risk (20%), and float quality (10%). A or better means a strong contract. D or F means the odds are against you.

Why is my contract rating blank?

You need at least 5 filled slots and a valid output tier before the tool scores your contract. Add more skins and the grade appears.

Can I trade up Covert skins?

No. Covert (red) is the top rarity for normal skins. There is no tier above it, so the calculator will tell you the contract has no possible output.

Will I ever get a knife or gloves from a trade up?

No. Knives and gloves are Special items and only drop from cases. They never come out of a trade up contract, so the calculator leaves them out of your outcome list.

What does the warning about a collection adding no probability weight mean?

It means one of your input collections has no skin at the next rarity tier. Those inputs still cost you money but can never produce a win. Swap them out for skins from a collection that has a higher tier.

How does Generate Random Profitable Contract work?

The tool tests many mixes of cheap skins across collections and rarities. It keeps the ones with a positive expected margin, then loads one for you. If nothing profitable exists under your filters, it tells you to loosen them.

What does Find Cheapest Inputs do?

Pick the skin you want to win, then click the button. The tool loads the lowest cost inputs that can reach that skin, and shows your cost, your chance of hitting it, and your expected profit.

Why is my predicted float different for each outcome skin?

Every skin has its own float range. The contract takes the average of your input floats and maps it onto that range. The same average can land as Factory New on one skin and Field-Tested on another.

Does the calculator include market fees?

No. It shows raw market prices from the source you pick. Steam takes about 15% when you sell, and other sites take a cut too. Trim your expected profit by that amount before you decide.

What is break-even chance?

It is the share of outcomes that sell for at least what you paid for all 10 inputs. A 30% break-even chance means 7 out of 10 contracts leave you short, even if the average is positive.

Can I use the same skin in all 10 slots?

Yes. Add one skin, then click Fill All to copy it into every empty slot. This is common when one cheap skin from a small collection gives the best odds.

Why do my min and max float filters show an error?

Both boxes only take numbers from 0 to 1. The min also cannot be larger than the max. Fix the number and the list updates right away.

Does the tool save my contract?

No. Nothing is stored. If you reload the page you get the sample contract back. Write down your setup if you want to keep it.

Why do my results change when I turn on StatTrak Only?

StatTrak skins cost more, so input cost and outcome prices both jump. Any non-StatTrak skins already in your slots are removed, since StatTrak skins only trade up with other StatTrak skins.

Is a positive expected value a promise I will make money?

No. It is only an average over many tries. One contract can still fail. Positive EV only pays off if you run many contracts and prices hold steady.